PV3 disse:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196797/epidemiologists-launch-weekly-forecast-coronavirus-deaths/
Este estudo foi publicado dia 8 e será publicado semanalmente.
"For the 42 countries with active transmission they also looked at transmissibility measured by the reproduction number - the average number of cases that one infected individual is likely to infect).
They estimated that the pandemic is growing rapidly (when transmissibility is greater than 2) in 26 of the countries; including the UK, USA, France, Germany and India.
They estimate that it is growing slowly (transmissibility between 1 and 2) in the Netherlands and Spain, and is stabilising (transmissibility below 1) in 14 countries, including; South Korea, Italy and Norway.
Estimates of transmissibility:
Growing rapidly: Algeria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America
Growing slowly: Netherlands, Spain
Stabilising: Argentina, Austria, Dominican Republic, Greece, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Panama, South Korea "
Nova actualizaçao (dados até 13/04)
https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html#content
Portugal passou para o grupo cuja transmissao está a estabilizar.
"Forecasts and Transmissibility Estimates
Based on our best estimates of transmissibility, the COVID-19 epidemic is:
likely declining in 1 countries
(South Korea);
likely stabilising in 19 countries
(Algeria, Austria, China, Czechia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Morocco, Netherlands, Philippines, Poland,
Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom);
likely growing slowly in 3 countries
(Ireland, Turkey, United States of America);
likely growing rapidly in 13 countries
(Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Russia).
Based on the central trends in the forecasts, the total number of reported deaths in the coming week is expected to be:
relatively small in 6 countries (<100 deaths)
(China, Czechia, Dominican Republic, Israel, Morocco, South Korea);
relatively large in 20 countries (100 to 1000 deaths)
(Algeria, Austria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland),
large in 7 countries (1,000 to 5,000 deaths)
(Belgium, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Turkey),
very large in 3 countries (> 5,000 deaths)
(France, United Kingdom, United States of America). "
Para esta semana, a previsao deles é de 244 mortos, o que dá uma média de 35 por dia.
Estimam que Portugal tem diagnosticado 34% dos casos de Covid (a semana passada era 20%).
Nao há muitos países melhores que nós.
