Um bom artigo sobre o lado económico do covid-19
The reason that the US and British governments wont impose (yet) draconian measures, as in China eventually and now in Italy (belatedly) and elsewhere, is because it will inevitably steepen the macroeconomic recession curve. Consider China or Italy: increasing social distances has required closing schools, universities, most non-essential businesses, and asking most of the working-age population to stay at home. While some people may be able to work from home, this remains a small fraction of the overall labour force. Even if working from home is an option, the short-term disruption to work and family routines is major and likely to affect productivity. In short, the best public health policy plunges the economy into a sudden stop. The supply shock.
The economic damage would be considerable. Gourinchas attempts to model the impact. He assumes that relative to a baseline, containment measures reduce economic activity by 50% for one month and 25% for another month, after which the economy returns to the baseline. That scenario would still deliver a massive blow to headline GDP numbers, with a decline in annual output growth of the order of 6.5% relative to the previous year. Extend the 25% shutdown for just another month and the decline in annual output growth (relative to the previous year) reaches almost 10%! As a point of comparison, the decline in output growth in the U.S. during the 2008-09 `Great Recession was around 4.5%. Gourinchas concludes that we are about to witness a downturn that could dwarf the Great Recession.
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/it-was-the-virus-that-did-it/